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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing/Writing (Drama, Comedy, Limited, TV Movie)
“SHOGUN” — “A Dream of a Dream” — Episode 10 (Airs April 23) Pictured (L-R): Cosmo Jarvis as John Blackthorne, Hiroyuki Sanada as Yoshii Toranaga. CR: Katie Yu/FX
Courtesy of Katie Yu/FX
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 4, 2024): Surprising news has emerged from studios regarding submissions for the directing and writing categories for the Emmys, with nomination voting set to open on June 13.
In the comedy category, “The Bear” has only submitted the iconic episode “Fishes,” written by Christopher Storer and Joanna Calo, for outstanding writing in a comedy. Surprisingly, the impressive episode “Forks,” which follows Richie (Ebon Moss-Bachrach) as he’s trained at an upscale restaurant, won’t be up for consideration. “Fishes” by Storer and “Honeydew” by Ramy Youssef will be on the ballot for directing.
“Abbott Elementary” sees Emmy-winning writer Quinta Brunson attempting to reclaim her title with the season premiere episode “Career Day.” The show has yet to receive recognition for its directorial achievements, but there’s anticipation that Randall Einhorn might finally make the lineup after directing the finale, “Party.”
A surprise freshman series could also make an appearance in the race. Paramount’s “Colin From Accounts,” with writers and stars Patrick Brammall and Harriet Dyer, is a strong contender. Additionally, the final season of “Reservation Dogs” might earn a long-overdue farewell bid for creator Sterlin Harjo. The series finale episodes of “Young Sheldon” or “Curb Your Enthusiasm” could also find their way into the competition after garnering buzz the past few weeks.
In the drama series category, “Shogun” is expected to make a significant impact. Meanwhile, the limited series category is shaping up to be a three-horse race between “True Detective” and Netflix’s double entries of “Baby Reindeer” and “Ripley.”
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Directing (Drama Series)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Shо̄gun” (FX) — Jonathan van Tulleken, “Chapter One: Anjin” 2 “The Crown” (Netflix) — Stephen Daldry, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” 3 “Shо̄gun” (FX) — Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” 4 “Fallout” (Prime Video) — Jonathan Nolan, “The End” 5 “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) — Mimi Leder, “The Overview Effect” 6 “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) — Hiro Murai, “First Date” 7 “The Curse” (Showtime) — Nathan Fielder, “Green Queen” Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series -
Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: Disney+ Next in Line
Rank Series 8 “Shо̄gun” (FX) — Charlotte Brändström, “Tomorrow is Tomorrow” 9 “3 Body Problem” (Netflix) — Derek Tsang, “Countdown” 10 “The Gilded Age” (Max) — Michael Engler, “In Terms of Winning and Losing”) 11 “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) — Saul Metzstein, series 12 “Ahsoka” (Disney+) — Dave Filoni, “Part Five: Shadow Warrior” 13 “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) — Donald Glover, “A Breakup” 14 “Loki” (Disney+) — Justin Benson & Aaron Moorhead, “Science/Fiction” 15 “The Green Veil” (The Network) — Aram Rappaport, “The War” Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series -
Writing (Drama Series)
Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Shōgun” (FX) — “Chapter One: Anjin” by Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks 2 “Shōgun” (FX) — “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” by Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente 3 “The Crown” (Netflix) — “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” by Peter Morgan 4 “Fallout” (Prime Video) — “The End” by Graham Wagner and Geneva Robertson-Dworet 5 “3 Body Problem” (Netflix) — “Countdown” by David Benioff, D. B. Weiss, Alexander Woo 6 “The Curse” (Showtime) — “Land of Enchantment” by Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie 7 “The Gilded Age” (Max) — “In Terms of Winning and Losing” by Julian Fellowes Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series -
Writing (Drama)
Image Credit: AMC Next in Line
Rank Series 8 “Shōgun” (FX) — “Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream” by Maegan Houang, Emily Yoshida 9 “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) — “First Date” by Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover 10 “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC) — “What We” by Danai Gurira 11 “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) — “Strange Games” by Will Smith 12 “Tokyo Vice” (Max) — “Endgame” by J. T. Rogers 13 “The New Look” (Apple TV+) — “Just You Wait and See” by Todd A. Kessler 14 “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+) — “Subspace Rhapsody” by “Those Old Scientists” 15 “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) — “One Ring Don’t Make a Dynasty” by Max Borenstein & Rodney Barnes Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series -
Directing (Comedy Series)
Image Credit: Max And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “The Bear” (FX) — Christopher Storer, “Fishes” 2 “Hacks” (Max) — Lucia Aniello, “Just For Laughs” 3 “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max) — Jeff Schaffer, “No Lessons Learned” 4 “The Gentlemen” (Netflix) — Guy Ritchie, “Refined Aggression” 5 “The Ms. Pat Show” (BET+) — Mary Lou Belli, “I’m the Pappy” 6 “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Randall Einhorn, “Party” 7 “The Bear” (FX) — Ramy Youssef, “Honeydew” Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series -
Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Hulu Next in Line
Rank Series 8 “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) – John Hoffman, “The Show Must…” 9 “Gen V” (Prime Video) — Steve Boyum, “The Whole Truth” 10 “Reservation Dogs” (FX) — Sterlin Harjo, “Dig” 11 “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+) — Tate Taylor, “Maxine Goes to Palm Beach” 12 “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video) — Boots Riley, series 13 “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) – Shari Berman & Robert Pulcini, “Sitzprobe” 14 “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max) — Robert B. Weide, “The Colostomy Bag” 15 “Hacks” (Max) — Paul W. Downs, “Yes, And” Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series -
Writing (Comedy Series)
Image Credit: Paramount+ And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “The Bear” (FX) — “Fishes” by Joanna Calo, Christopher Storer 2 “Hacks” (Max) — “Just For Laughs” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky 3 “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Career Day” by Quinta Brunson 4 “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — “Opening Night” by John Hoffman, Ben Smith 5 “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) — “Pride Parade” by Jake Bender, Zach Dunn 6 “Reservation Dogs” (FX) — “Dig” by Chad Charlie and Sterlin Harjo 7 “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+) — “The Flash” by Patrick Brammall and Harriet Dyer Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series -
Writing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Bill Inoshita / Warner Bros. Next in Line
Rank Series 8 “Young Sheldon” (CBS) — “Memoir” by Chuck Lorre & Steven Molaro & Steve Holland 9 “Loot” (Apple TV+) — “Space for Everyone” by Alan Yang, Matt Hubbard 10 “The Gentlemen” (Netflix) — “Refined Aggression” by Guy Ritchie and Matthew Read 11 “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+) — “Maxine Goes to Palm Beach” by Abe Sylvia 12 “Gen V” (Prime Video) — “God U.” by Craig Rosenberg, Evan Goldberg and Eric Kripke 13 “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Showtime) — “Pilot” by Adjani Salmon & Ali Hughes 14 “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) – “Celebrity Booze: The Ultimate Cash Grab” by Rob McElhenney, Charlie Day, Glenn Howerton 15 “Diarra from Detriot” (BET+) — “Chasing Ghosts” by Diarra Kilpatrick Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series -
Directing (Limited Series/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Ripley” (Netflix) — Steven Zaillian, series 2 “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) — Weronika Tofilska, “Episode 1” 3 “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) — Issa López, series 4 “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) — Sarah Adina Smith, “Her and Him” 5 “The Sympathizer” (Max) — Park Chan-wook, “Death Wish” Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Directing (Limited)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV+ Next in Line
Rank Series 6 “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) — Tara Miele, “Introduction to Chemistry” 7 “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) – Gus Van Sant, “Pilot” 8 “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) — Daniel Minahan, “You’re Wonderful” 9 “Fargo” (FX) – Noah Hawley, “The Tragedy of the Commons” 10 “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) — Cary Joji Fukunaga, “Part One” 11 “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix) — Shawn Levy 12 “Expats” (Prime Video) — Lulu Wang, series 13 “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) — Millicent Shelton, “Poirot” 14 “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX) – Brit Marling, “Chapter 1: Homme Fatale” 15 “Under the Bridge” (FX) – Geeta Vasant Patel, “Looking Glass” Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Writing (Limited Series/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Kurt Iswarienko/SHOWTIME And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) — Series by Richard Gadd 2 “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) — Series by Issa López 3 “Ripley” (Netflix) — Series by Steven Zaillian 4 “Fargo” (FX) – “The Tragedy of the Commons” by Noah Hawley 5 “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) — “You’re Wonderful” by Ron Nyswaner Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Writing (Limited)
Image Credit: HULU Next in Line
Rank Series 6 “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) – Series by Jon Robin Baitz 7 “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) — “Little Miss Hastings” by Lee Eisenberg 8 “Expats” (Prime Video) — Series by Lulu Wang 9 “The Sympathizer” (Max) — “Death Wish” by Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar 10 “Under the Bridge” (Hulu) — “Mercy Alone” by Samir Mehta 11 “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix) — Series by Steven Knight 12 “We Were The Lucky Ones” (Hulu) – “Rio” by Erica Lipez 13 “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) — “Part One” by John Orloff, John Shiban 14 “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+) — “A Master of Circumstance” by Ben Vanstone 15 “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock) — “The Delaneys” by Melanie Marnich Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
