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US President Joe Biden has jumped ahead of former President Donald Trump in a Fox News poll of a hypothetical matchup between the two for the first time since October, a shift since Trump was convicted on all counts in his Manhattan hush money trial.
The Fox News poll found 50% of surveyed voters would cast their ballots for Biden while 48% would do so for Trump in a two-way race. That’s a two percentage point shift since the network’s last poll in May, where Trump led Biden 49% to 48%.
The results are within the margin of error.
But it’s the first time Biden has polled ahead of Trump since October 2023 in a Fox News survey and comes amid other signs the former president’s trial may have left a lasting impression on voters before the two men take the debate stage in Atlanta next week.
A jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to the porn star Stormy Daniels last month, the first time an American president has ever been convicted of felony crimes.
Biden himself has had some political wins and some struggles in recent weeks. His son, Hunter Biden, was found guilty of illegally owning a gun earlier this month. But the Biden administration is gaining ground for the president’s work to stimulate the economy.
About a third of respondents told Fox News they felt good or excellent about the economy, the highest point in Biden’s presidency.
The poll had several other notable findings. Independent voters surveyed by Fox News favoured Biden by 9 percentage points. In May, the demographic favoured Trump by 2 points, a dramatic shift.
“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who conducts the surveys with a Democratic colleague, told Fox News. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”
Biden also leads in a potential 5-way matchup when independent candidates are included, including Robert F Kennedy Jr, Jill Stein and Cornel West. 43% of respondents said they would vote for the president while 42% opted for Trump.
The Fox News survey polled 1,100 registered voters around the country with a margin of error of 3%.
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