Hurricane Rafael grows into a Category 2 storm as it bears down on Cuba

San Juan, Puerto Rico — Hurricane Rafael swelled into a Category 2 storm early Wednesday as it swirled past the Cayman Islands, and it was forecast to rapidly intensify before making landfall later in the day in western Cuba. It was another stroke of bad news for Cuba, which has been struggling with blackouts while recovering from another hurricane two weeks ago that killed at least six people in the eastern part of the island.

The storm was located about 90 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, and around 160 miles south-southeast of Havana as of 7 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, Rafael had become a Category 2 storm. 

It was moving northwest at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters warned that Rafael was expected to slam into Cuba on Wednesday after dumping rain on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. The center warned of floods, storm surges and mudslides.

The U.S. State Department issued an advisory for Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, offering departure flights to non-essential staff and American citizens, and advising others to “reconsider travel to Cuba due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Rafael,” before the storm grew into a hurricane.

On Tuesday morning, the Cuban Civil Defense called on Cubans to prepare as soon as possible, because when the storm makes landfall “it’s important to stay where you are.” The day before, authorities said they had issued an evacuation order for 37,000 people in far eastern Cuba, in the province of Guantanamo, due to bad weather.

A hurricane warning that had been in effect Tuesday for the Cayman Islands was dropped for the biggest of the islands Wednesday. The measure remained in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, along with the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for a handful of other Cuban provinces, as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Tortugas. The warning was lifted in Jamaica after the storm passed by the western coast.  

Rafael on Tuesday knocked out power in Jamaica and unleashed flooding and landslides.

The Jamaica Public Service, the island’s electricity provider, said in a statement late Tuesday that impassable roads were preventing crews from restoring power in some areas.

Meanwhile, crews in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac were expected to fan out early Wednesday to assess damage after a direct hit late Tuesday. Power outages were reported across the Cayman Islands, and schools remained closed on Wednesday.

“While conditions have improved on Grand Cayman, residents are advised to exercise extreme caution on the roads and near coastlines as rough seas and residual flooding risks may persist,” the government said in a statement.

Forecasters warned Rafael would unleash heavy rains across the western Caribbean that could lead to flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

Heavy rainfall also was expected to spread north into Florida and nearby areas of the southeast U.S. during the middle to late part of the week. The Hurricane Center predicted storm surges in Florida could reach 1 to 3 feet in Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. A few tornadoes also were expected Wednesday over the Keys and southwestern Florida.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season was likely to be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes.