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The following is a transcript of an interview with retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander for U.S. Central Command, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on Aug. 11, 2024.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Tensions are high in the Middle East, where fears of an expanding regional war are growing a week after Israel killed a top Hamas leader in Iran and two Hezbollah commanders. for more we go to retired General Frank McKenzie, who was the former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. Good to have you back.
FORMER COMMANDER OF US FORCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST GENERAL FRANK MCKENZIE: Good to be here, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, we’ve talked a number of times in recent months, and the scenario you have flagged as the most concerning is one it seems we are on the brink of, and that is Lebanese Hezbollah entering this conflict, potentially in a significant way. How do you characterize where we are right now?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Margaret, I think we are hours, maybe days, not weeks, away from Lebanese Hezbollah entering this fight, and that’s always been the big variable. They are the largest non-state military entity in the world, you know, a parasite on Lebanon, but they have 10s and 10s of 1000s of highly accurate rockets and missiles, and they can challenge Israel in a way that Iran and the Houthis, for that matter, are unable to do so, because of their geographic proximity, because of the number of weapons that they have. And that’s very concerning. I’ve thought all along, the most dangerous turn in events would be if they chose to enter at scale. Now, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, has got to make a very strategic decision on this, because he will be open to a withering Israeli counter attack should he choose to enter at great scale. And what would great scale be? Don’t know. I would say if he chooses to attack Israeli population centers, I would say if he- significant, significant casualties are caused by a Hezbollah attack, that will bring the IDF in, back in, with great force, and he recognizes that. And the last point I just make is, Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Hezbollah are perhaps weaker in Lebanon now than they’ve been in many years, because of the- the destruction of the economy, the fact that the country’s in governmental gridlock, lots of problems in Lebanon that he has to think about before he chooses to fight Israel, toe to toe.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And that certainly is something the diplomats who are trying to cool things off are very aware of. Your successor, CENTCOM Commander General Kurilla, was twice in Israel this past week. We know the United States has sent F-22 jets to the region. What do you expect the scope of U.S. involvement to be?
GEN. MCKENZIE: I think we saw a taste of that last April, in Iran’s 13 April attack on Israel, which was not a successful attack, and it was not successful for several reasons, one of which was Israeli competence. The second was U.S. assistance and some assistance from other nations in the region. All of those things militated to blunt and really turn aside the Iranian attack. I think that General Kurilla will probably strive to reproduce those same capabilities, that same approach this time, it will be a significantly harder task, though, again, if Lebanese Hezbollah chooses to enter, because now you face a multi-axis attack, Iran from the east, Lebanese Hezbollah from the north. I’m sure Hamas will chime in to the limits of their ability, and the Houthis will come in. So it will be a significant test for Israel. We are committed to their defense. I think that Central Command has done a great job of assisting them as they prepare for this attack, which I believe is- is imminent.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Is imminent. You would expect to see U.S. jets in the air there, intercepting as they did last time?
GEN. MCKENZIE: I think we would see the same model that was used last time. Now here’s the thing, the Iranians and Lebanese Hezbollah have had the opportunity to study that template. I’m sure they’ll try to make some adjustments that will make it more difficult. On the other hand, we, too, are an adaptive learning organization, so we’ll be looking at our tactics, and we’ve got very good commanders who can fight an air battle, and it will be an air battle that’s going to be fought, and I think- I think we can be very successful here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you think the U.S. strategy of trying to focus in on August 15 and a ceasefire in Gaza should still be the centerpiece for lowering tensions throughout the region?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Certainly, we should try to get to some post conflict state in Gaza. That’s a- that’s an objective that needs to be there, regardless of whatever else is going on in the region. I’m not certain to know that the current Iranian efforts against Israel are directly related to what’s going on in Gaza. You know, the Iranians, fundamental to Iranian philosophy of life is destruction of the State of Israel. We should take them at their word on this. They’re not actually going to attack or come into conflict with Israel because of what’s going on in Gaza. Their reasons are the existence of Israel itself, and those transcend anything going on in Gaza.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sir, before I let you go, August 15 is the anniversary of the Taliban seizing control of Afghanistan a few years ago. I wonder what you think about U.S. security currently?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Well I think about it a lot, Margaret and three years on, our ability to see inside a. Afghanistan is quite limited. The violent extremist organizations characterized by ISIS-K and other groups, we believe they’re actually expanding. They carried out a successful attack in Russia a few months ago. I am concerned about the growth of those organizations, and I’m concerned about the relative lack of our ability to see what they’re doing and act against them, should it prove necessary to do so. So I think we’re in a weaker state now than we were a year ago, or two years ago, and I am concerned about the future.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, always good to talk to you, and we’ll all be on edge, as you said, for the coming days. Thank you.
