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For decades, women in Australia have been told they should have more children for the good of the country.
And in the lead up to this week’s federal budget, we were reminded of former treasurer Peter Costello’s 2004 “baby bonus” catchcry to have “one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country”.
Australia’s fertility rates have been plunging and our population shrinking, only to be buoyed by a high migration intake.
But on Tuesday night, the government revealed it will be slashing its immigration program.
So, it’s over to women to help balance the population as the country braces for a “grey tsunami”.
“It would be better if birth rates were higher,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said this week.
These days, there’s a long list of reasons why women don’t want children, or feel it’s not possible in a world that’s “not like it used to be”.
And experts say big policy changes are needed, rather than putting a “bandaid over a bullet hole” and expecting individuals to solve structural problems.
Even still, many women who spoke to the ABC say they just don’t want kids and “that should be OK”.
Why do fertility rates matter?
Maintaining a stable and growing population is important for the economy, because a top-heavy age demographic means there are fewer people who can support that older generation.
However, there are also arguments against growing populations due to environmental pressures.
Leah Ruppanner, a University of Melbourne sociology professor, who has been addressing fertility on her podcast MissPerceived, said population balance is a big issue for governments.
“It shifts the kind of services needed, it impacts economic growth, it changes the type of infrastructure you need to support your population,” she said.
Right now, Australia’s fertility rate is at its lowest in history, dropping almost 20 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008.
The current rate is 1.6, which is well below the “replacement rate” of above 2.1 births per women.
Basically, for a population to grow, countries need families to have more than two children to replace their parents and account for infant mortality.
Australia has traditionally been addressing low birth rates by letting in more migrants.
But, with the government’s cap on permanent migration, net overseas migration is forecast to halve to 260,000 in 2024-2025, according to budget papers.
Why are women not having children?
Women are more educated
Claire would have liked to have children, but says there’s been too many barriers.
“It’s just hard. It’s not like it used to be,” she said.
“You can’t just go out and get a partner, then go down that path of having kids and buying a house.”
The 43-year-old chose to study later in life, and hasn’t been in a position to make family plans.
“When you’re so busy in life, when you’ve got study, and you’re trying to keep afloat with the cost of living, you can’t even think about trying to get a partner,” she said.
And without having the financial means or support to raise a child alone in Melbourne, she started to realise having her own kids probably won’t be on the cards.
“I definitely feel a bit sad about that,” she said.
“If you really did want to have kids, it’s not something that you could just go out and do.”
Professor Ruppanner said education is a common factor for women delaying having children.
Women are better educated now than ever before, making up more than 60 per cent of students in Australian higher education.
Women are “delaying, delaying, delaying,” Professor Ruppanner said.
“Building your educational pathways and building your career pathways spike at that simultaneous period of time where your fertility is also spiking.”
Gender inequality and life balance
Alice had been holding off having children so she could focus on a career and save for a house.
And she knew it would be “really difficult”.
“I know that my career will probably slow down, I know that the pay gap between me and my male partner will widen,” she said.
“It’s not a good deal.”
The 32-year-old also can’t imagine sustaining the level of work needed to afford a child, while also having enough time to be fully involved their life.
There was talk of big baby bolstering incentives in the lead-up to the budget, and in the end families were promised superannuation on top of paid parental leave.
Alice welcomed the measure, but wants more conversations around encouraging men to also take more time off work.
“It seems strange that we’re not talking about making it easier for men to take parental leave, or make it more normalised for them to take a big chunk of parental leave,” she said.
Despite her concerns, Alice is currently trying for a family.
“But I know that’s not going to be easy,” she said.
Professor Ruppanner says workplaces and policies are slow to adapt to supporting caregiving, and often men are penalised for taking time off work.
“Men want more time with their kids, but they don’t know how to do that without financial cost,” she said.
“But, we also ask women to do that all the time.”
The freedom appeal
Charli has been with her partner for eight years and married for four.
Apart from some “confusing inner turmoil” that crept in during Melbourne’s long pandemic lockdowns, the 38-year-old has been certain about her choice to remain child free.
“I’ve just never imagined my life with children,” she said.
“And I’ve become really comfortable in my decision to say ‘no, it’s just not what I want and that’s okay’.”
Charli says she enjoys living with more financial freedom and feels it’s also a better environmental choice.
“I feel very comfortable and grateful right now that the expenses that we have are pretty minimal,” she said.
Thirty-nine-year-old Bek had a similar certainty.
“All of the things I see for myself in the future feature me alone,” she said.
“I’m really greedy for life experiences, there’s so many things that I want to do.
“And I’m surrounded by a rich tapestry of incredible relationships that sustain and nourish me.”
She also sees the difficulties friends face when they become parents.
“There are so many things wrong with the way society is set up that does not create the sort of environment that would make people want to have kids,” she told the ABC.
“Those factors have confirmed my decision, but they’re not the reason.”
Young people face an uncertain future
It’s much harder for young people to enter the housing market these days and achieve the traditional markers associated with starting a family.
Mille, 22, says she always thought she would have kids, but now can’t imagine that being possible.
“Historically I have wanted kids … but [with the] ongoing structural financial insecurity I see in my future, my opinion is now that it may very likely not be on the cards,” she said.
Tanya Williams, author of A Childfree Happily Ever After, is regularly in contact with women contemplating whether or not to have kids.
She said reasons have varied and changed over time, but lately more young people say they are worried about climate change and the impact population growth has on the environment.
“I feel like there’s a bit of a shift in terms of why the younger generation is now saying ‘you know what, this is not the us’,” she said.
“I think that makes sense, given where we’re at in the world right now as well.”
Joy is worried about what opportunities her children will have when they grow up.
The 39-year-old is from a large Filipino family, but decided to stop at two children due to financial reasons and whether she “should”.
“I think there’s a different rhetoric now on whether it’s not just viable, but if that’s the responsible thing to do,” she said.
“I think also for my kids, ‘are you ever going to be able to afford a house?'”
Joy works closely with women from multicultural backgrounds in Western Sydney.
She said although there are still “beautiful big families everywhere” more people are questioning if they can continue those cultural norms.
“Can we afford this in this current climate? Is it fair to our kids if we if we’re struggling all the time? That is something a lot of my friends and I joke about, but it’s a serious conversation,” she said.
Can the right models boost births?
Fertility rates have been declining globally.
By 2050, over three-quarters of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time, according to a recent study by the Lancet.
The authors say while there’s no silver bullet, there are social policies such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, financial incentives, and extra employment rights, that could provide a boost.
This is the case in Sweden where there’s also a safety net around housing and income, Professor Ruppanner said.
And there, people are having two or more children.
The budget commits to a future pay rise for early childhood educators, but it’s not clear is how much that will be.
Other than that, funding for the sector remains largely unchanged overall.
Grattan Institute analysis has found that Australia’s childcare is so expensive that mothers can lose up to 100 per cent of their their take-home pay from working a fourth or fifth day after the additional childcare costs.
While childcare subsidies have increased, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says under current arrangements, child care is neither affordable nor accessible for many households and subsidy arrangements aren’t helping.
Australia’s number of paid parental leave weeks are also among the lowest across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
Currently, a couple with a newborn or newly adopted child can access up to 20 weeks of paid parental leave at the national minimum wage.
Under recent changes to the scheme, that figure will continue to rise until it reaches 26 weeks by July 2026.
Modelling the direct impact of the introduction of a 26-week paid parental leave scheme on women’s labour force participation, the Grattan Institute shows an increase in national GDP of $900 million a year, and an increase of $30,000 to the average mother’s lifetime earnings.
Professor Ruppanner says the addition of super payments during parental leave and other recent changes indicate that there are some good policies emerging, but it’s not enough.
“It’s a bandaid over a bullet hole,” she said.
“It’s like they’re waiting for the grey tsunami before it becomes the primary problem … it’s as though they are making population a problem for tomorrow.”
